Consumer Confidence Hits 15 year low?!

From moodys.com today.....
http://moodys.com

The Conference Board index of consumer confidence dipped modestly again in April, in line with expectations. The index came in at 62.3, down from April’s upwardly revised 65.9 (previously 64.5).

This was the fourth consecutive decline in the index and left it at its second lowest level since October 1993. Assessments of labor market conditions fell again. The share of consumers finding jobs plentiful fell 2.6 percentage points to 16.6%, the lowest reading since September 2004.

Consumers are also becoming increasingly concerned about the outlook for their incomes, which does not bode well for spending. Buying plans for homes fell further, matching their lowest level since December 1982. Debt burdens are high and saving is low, and cash flow is becoming hindered by the increased difficulty in obtaining credit and declining home equity. There also is the burden from energy prices, as oil continues to track near $120 and gasoline prices appear headed toward $4.00 per gallon.

Consumer expectations for inflation soared to the second highest level on record back to 1987.

There is a long list of drags on confidence, including soaring energy prices, weakness and volatility in equity markets, weakening housing markets and stretched household finances. On top of this, the labor market is deteriorating.



Dan Ross
http://BetterBizBooks.com

States face Budget Gaps/ Potential Crisis looming?

This is what happens.

1) economy picks up
2) states spend more
3) economy tanks
4) politicians and state goes WHOOPS!

The bottom line is that states spent too much during the boom times due to the real estate boom. How about some tightening of the belt or reduction of some spending for once? This is VERY common in 3rd world economies. You frequently see stuff like this happening during a "currency crisis" where the gov't spends more than they take in for several years or gets impacted SIGNIFICANTLY by some time of external shock to its revenue base.

Will Venenzuala, as an example, be able to spend $$$ the way they currently are if oil goes to $50? Probably not....and social unrest will occur.

Here in the ole U.S. , where we live more comfortably than 99% of the world, people will whine a bit but we don't see the type of lobbying/people gathering/movements like we used to see in the past. Call it apathy?? I don't know but taxes are going to go up BIG TIME, in my opinion, in the next 5-10 years so people better wake up!

Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizBooks.com/

Social Networking Growth According to Nielson Online

Linkedin.com is the fastest growing social network Y-Y. Much of that growth is due to the unique nature of business relationships (people work with ALOT of people) and the desire of many people to keep in contact with people as they move jobs/locations, etc.



Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizBooks.com

Internet Search MarketShare Data - March 2008

Very consistent data with #1, #2 and #3 marketshare data. The ability for anyone to catch google is slim to none. That is why #3 is trying to buyout #2, to get CLOSE and shake the game up quite a bit. Even if the deal would occur, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if google retained 60% share for awhile. Over time, as markets get more specific, we may see some marketshare erosion but, for general searches, Google is a clear #1 by a long shot.



Dan Ross
http://BetterBizBooks.com

Blockbuster to buy Circuit City - DOH!

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080414/blockbuster_circuit_city.html

Anyone else lose complete respect for Carl Icahn and his investment ideas? I mean, one declining franchise, without a good balance sheet, is going to purchase a #2 electronics franchise that is losing billions. Have the Blockbuster executives (based here in Dallas) walked through a Circuit City recently? Talk about DEAD FOOT TRAFFIC.....Everyone goes to Best Buy now because they don't know if Circuit City will be around 2 years from now!

This will be interesting to watch. Lets see if they truly can raise financing for what I believe, at face value, appears to be one of the strangest deals/acquisitions in the last 10-20 years. This is the kind of business scenario that Harvard Business Cases are created out of.

Dan Ross
http://BetterBizBooks.com/

Related Sites:
http://www.circuitcity.com/
http://www.bestbuy.com/
http://www.amazon.com/

Grocery prices / Inflation about to hit your wallet!

I posted some similar commentary on this topic 4/12/08. Well, here are some additional datappoints/articles backing up my thoughts.

If Grocery stores post FLAT results isn’t that really -9% to -10% growth as they are passing along higher costs to their customers? Inflation at the grocery store is up there and I think this is a topic that few are discussing. How much are Walmart’s numbers propped UP due to HIGHER prices that they must pass onto customers? Are there numbers as solid as everyone would like to think they are given their focus on supercenters/groceries, etc? I know Macy’s isn’t eggs and dairy products, up 20% + in the last 12 months.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080414/ap_on_bi_ge/inflation_squeeze;_ylt=As1L9m0HHQcGWZVuiBUgBItv24cA

Hope somebody will understand that $60 to fill up my gas tank every 4-5 days + higher grocery bills = less $$$ to spend eating out/shopping….

Dan
http://BetterBizBooks.com

Interesting to think re: the company below...
http://Walmart.com

Health Care Costs Gone Wrong - What is wrong with America...

WOW! This is not how I envisioned health care in our nation. I understand survival of the fittest, the need to try and manage health care costs but this is really about kicking someone when they are down.

This is another nail in the Republican Coffin in the 2008 Presidential race if they don't address this. Basically the cost of medicine will SKYROCKET for those with progressive diseases or those fighting diseases. The amount, per month, will really ding the pocket of the average American, especially those with kids.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/14/us/14drug.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&no_interstitial

Dan Ross
http://BetterBizBooks.com