From Darren Hardy’s blog
Some of the greatest companies of our time were born during recessions or depressions:
Hyatt Corp., Sports Illustrated – recession of 1950s.
Microsoft–recession of 1970s.
CNN, MTV – recession of 1980s.
16 of 30 Dow Companies – started in recession or depression.
Procter & Gamble, Disney, Alcoa, McDonald’s, General Electric and Johnson & Johnson.
Why Now? from SUCCESS magazine on Vimeo.
To make this point resonate a bit more, lets share some RECENT success. I am talking about companies we see today that didn’t exist in the last 10 years!
Google, YouTube, and Facebook were all developed during the last recession.
So, when you see the media/news each day, remember this, your success story can happen in 2009 and beyond. It might not be immediate but both of us have to keep on taking progressive steps towards our goals and dreams each day. Don't let anything stop us. Create answers/solutions to problems and overcome adversity.
Failure to accomplish my dreams is NOT an option. If I get knocked down I fully intend to stand right back up and keep on taking steps towards my goals and I hope you do to.
Or, if you want to be somewhat sarcastic and bold about it, I would point to online marketer and product launch guru Frank Kern. Recently, after selling out his Mass Control 2.0 product/system ($2000 each by the way) he commented “Dear Recession, Suck it!”
Hope this helps cheer you up and motivate you the rest of 2009 and beyond.
Dan Ross
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Christmas 2009 Tips for Retailers
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Toy-luxury-stores-eye-apf-14776510.html
Key takeaways:
High-end consumer prices likely to drop. Consumers aren't splurging as much in tough times.
High-end stores cutting inventory levels to create scarcity and to minimize inventory rightdowns. This is smart. People are likely to buy at full price in the store if they are worried about an item selling out. Frank Kern's excellent Mass Control product talks about creating scarcity and buzz :)
Minimum buying requirements (order sizes) are likely to decline in 2009. Businesses won't stick their neck out on the line for unproven products and are likely to be more worried regarding having excess products on the shelves in 2009.
Dan Ross
Key takeaways:
High-end consumer prices likely to drop. Consumers aren't splurging as much in tough times.
High-end stores cutting inventory levels to create scarcity and to minimize inventory rightdowns. This is smart. People are likely to buy at full price in the store if they are worried about an item selling out. Frank Kern's excellent Mass Control product talks about creating scarcity and buzz :)
Minimum buying requirements (order sizes) are likely to decline in 2009. Businesses won't stick their neck out on the line for unproven products and are likely to be more worried regarding having excess products on the shelves in 2009.
Dan Ross
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Solar Stocks headed North? Great link....
http://seekingalpha.com/article/128304-want-solar-panels-china-will-pick-up-the-tab?source=email
Great Article on China subsidizing the installation/financing of solar panels. I am going to keep abreast on this story as all the details aren't spelled out. Given the credit crunch going on right now in the world, this is a VERY important announcement and, frankly, a gamechanger for some companies.
China is the #1 manufacturer of solar panels so they do have a HUGE vested interest. Chinese banks also funded quite a bit of the industries growth over the last few years and, from what I have read, some companies aren't generating free cash flow at this time (ie. they are dead if volumes start to decline as their debtloads will kill them). Troubled companies would be stuck with too much capacity, already thin margins due to industry overcapacity and their banks would get negatively impacted in the future.
This is also a way to help keep their exports up while enabling U.S. companies to effectively gain access to credit (because the payback period would be quicker) and save $$$ themselves. This has an impact on our trade deficit with China, an important thing to keep in mind when we hear politicians and their TV ramblings :)
Basically the payback period on solar installations is going to be 1.5 to 2 years now at current electric prices if the math he did is correct.
Keep this in the back of your mind as solar stock prices, from what the article says, appear to be heading north. Due your DD on this one...
Dan
Great Article on China subsidizing the installation/financing of solar panels. I am going to keep abreast on this story as all the details aren't spelled out. Given the credit crunch going on right now in the world, this is a VERY important announcement and, frankly, a gamechanger for some companies.
China is the #1 manufacturer of solar panels so they do have a HUGE vested interest. Chinese banks also funded quite a bit of the industries growth over the last few years and, from what I have read, some companies aren't generating free cash flow at this time (ie. they are dead if volumes start to decline as their debtloads will kill them). Troubled companies would be stuck with too much capacity, already thin margins due to industry overcapacity and their banks would get negatively impacted in the future.
This is also a way to help keep their exports up while enabling U.S. companies to effectively gain access to credit (because the payback period would be quicker) and save $$$ themselves. This has an impact on our trade deficit with China, an important thing to keep in mind when we hear politicians and their TV ramblings :)
Basically the payback period on solar installations is going to be 1.5 to 2 years now at current electric prices if the math he did is correct.
Keep this in the back of your mind as solar stock prices, from what the article says, appear to be heading north. Due your DD on this one...
Dan
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Unemployment + More job losses in 2009
Great article re: the state of the economy and job losses.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/06/news/economy/jobs_february/index.htm
Despite a rising stock market this week (+10% - a suckers rally, in my opinion), the below pictures, from the article above, really highlight how quickly the economy has deteriorated. I am now convinced that 10% unemployment is in the cards here in 2009.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/06/news/economy/jobs_february/index.htm
Despite a rising stock market this week (+10% - a suckers rally, in my opinion), the below pictures, from the article above, really highlight how quickly the economy has deteriorated. I am now convinced that 10% unemployment is in the cards here in 2009.
Dan Ross
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Pending Pain for the Economy and Stock Market?
Boy, this kind of reporting gets old (negative news AGAIN) but I do NOT find it being reported enough by the general business media (CNBC, Fox Business News). The people they bring on, in general, have views/opinions are TOO optimistic and keep luring people into leaving their $$$ in the stock market right now.
1) Apparently there is a TON more pain that is going to hit European banks here soon as Eastern Europe pains negatively impacts their banks. Most North American/Japanese banks aren't big players in these countries.
2) John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors, thinks the markets will hit a new low this summer, and then potentially flip/flop a bunch for years to follow. I agree with his thoughts re: "another leg down" as I think the markets should be trading around 665-680 based on multiples to forecasted S&P500 EPS and historical pricing behavior during bear markets. If this happens, can you imagine the impact to 401k plans, pension funds (that will be SUBSTANTIALLY underfunded), etc.
Hope everyone finds this info. valuable.
Dan Ross
http://www.DanRoss.info
1) Apparently there is a TON more pain that is going to hit European banks here soon as Eastern Europe pains negatively impacts their banks. Most North American/Japanese banks aren't big players in these countries.
2) John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors, thinks the markets will hit a new low this summer, and then potentially flip/flop a bunch for years to follow. I agree with his thoughts re: "another leg down" as I think the markets should be trading around 665-680 based on multiples to forecasted S&P500 EPS and historical pricing behavior during bear markets. If this happens, can you imagine the impact to 401k plans, pension funds (that will be SUBSTANTIALLY underfunded), etc.
Hope everyone finds this info. valuable.
Dan Ross
http://www.DanRoss.info
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Retail to the Rescue?
Retail to the rescue?
I wouldn't believe this opinion for a split second. Markets don't go straight down. They go down down further than they rebound. They go down more than up due to information being slow to come out. Markets don't go straight down because people see signs of a positive rebound and get greedy.
Well, I am playing the trend and this trend is down.
The economy has weakened, consumers and businesses aren't spending (remember, they are trying to PAY BACK their debts from previous years) and besides, the free credit of yesteryears is no longer available. I think 4-5% in some guaranteed investment works for me. Heck, I think the best investment is people investing in themselves to develop some new skills that enable them to add value in their organization or on their own. That way, if anything happens, people have something to fall back on or perhaps a new career path.
Dan Ross
I wouldn't believe this opinion for a split second. Markets don't go straight down. They go down down further than they rebound. They go down more than up due to information being slow to come out. Markets don't go straight down because people see signs of a positive rebound and get greedy.
Well, I am playing the trend and this trend is down.
The economy has weakened, consumers and businesses aren't spending (remember, they are trying to PAY BACK their debts from previous years) and besides, the free credit of yesteryears is no longer available. I think 4-5% in some guaranteed investment works for me. Heck, I think the best investment is people investing in themselves to develop some new skills that enable them to add value in their organization or on their own. That way, if anything happens, people have something to fall back on or perhaps a new career path.
Dan Ross
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Tony Robbins @ TED conference
Classic from Tony Robbins. More cool clips like this at http://www.TED.com
Enjoy!
Dan Ross
Enjoy!
Dan Ross
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Coming Retail Iceburg (More Commercial Real Estate Problems)
I've been mentioning this for quite awhile folks......Everyone reading the blog and looking at my "commercial real estate" tags can view prior comments.
Basically retail consultant Howard Davidowitz,of Davidowitz & Associates, is saying that as Americans save and spend less, due to the financial crisis, it's clear there's too much retail space. Just visit Web site deadmalls.com and track retail's growing body count. Most concerning to Davidowitz are Luxury Retailers and "private equity retailers" (formerly publicly traded and then taken private via use of debt by private equity companies).
Among the brandname stores Davidowitz says are in trouble:
Nordstrom
Neiman Marcus
Tiffany
Jeweler Zale Corp.
Saks
J.C. Penney
Sears
Until I can get some revised blogs up I thought I would keep people abreast of my thoughts so I'll keep the content coming here! I see it taking about a month for things to get done.
I hope everyone enjoys the video below. Boy, this guy is PESSIMISTIC!
Dan Ross
Basically retail consultant Howard Davidowitz,of Davidowitz & Associates, is saying that as Americans save and spend less, due to the financial crisis, it's clear there's too much retail space. Just visit Web site deadmalls.com and track retail's growing body count. Most concerning to Davidowitz are Luxury Retailers and "private equity retailers" (formerly publicly traded and then taken private via use of debt by private equity companies).
Among the brandname stores Davidowitz says are in trouble:
Nordstrom
Neiman Marcus
Tiffany
Jeweler Zale Corp.
Saks
J.C. Penney
Sears
Until I can get some revised blogs up I thought I would keep people abreast of my thoughts so I'll keep the content coming here! I see it taking about a month for things to get done.
I hope everyone enjoys the video below. Boy, this guy is PESSIMISTIC!
Dan Ross
Jim Cramer on Nationalizing Companies - His Take
I like his take. I think he puts things into proper perspective...
Dan Ross
Dan Ross
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Blog on hold ???? Not completely
Sorry for the lack of posting lately but, with taking down Christmas stuff, dealing with a move and being in Vegas for a bachelor party, the blog got put onto the backburner.
In the next few weeks you will see some changes. Let me know what you think about them. I think you'll find them refreshing and necessary at the same time.
Anyway, for those that didn't see Obama's inaguration here is a good speech.
Dan Ross
In the next few weeks you will see some changes. Let me know what you think about them. I think you'll find them refreshing and necessary at the same time.
Anyway, for those that didn't see Obama's inaguration here is a good speech.
Dan Ross
Thursday, January 15, 2009
2009 Investment Predictions - Great videos/article
Another person concerned about the fall of the U.S. dollar this year and deleveraging. Todd Harrison, Jim Cramer's former partner/trader, is a bright guy folks. He was VERY right in 2008!
In this follow up video, Harrison talks about S&P 500 levels at 600. Here are Harrison's 10 investment themes for 2009.
Folks, my thoughts mirror Harrison's so that is why I just included the videos :) Many of the things he writes about or talks about are things I have written about in the last few months, like underfunded pension funds.
http://betterbizbooks.blogspot.com/2008/11/next-trouble-spot-underfunded-pension.html
Here is his article on his top investment themes for 2009
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/TXN-hpq-yen-spx-dis-CAL/index/a/20540
Dan Ross
http://www.DanRoss.info
In this follow up video, Harrison talks about S&P 500 levels at 600. Here are Harrison's 10 investment themes for 2009.
Folks, my thoughts mirror Harrison's so that is why I just included the videos :) Many of the things he writes about or talks about are things I have written about in the last few months, like underfunded pension funds.
http://betterbizbooks.blogspot.com/2008/11/next-trouble-spot-underfunded-pension.html
Here is his article on his top investment themes for 2009
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/TXN-hpq-yen-spx-dis-CAL/index/a/20540
Dan Ross
http://www.DanRoss.info
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Commercial Real Estate - Updated Posts
March 2008 I talk about a slowdown that is being seen in that sector of the market
http://betterbizbooks.blogspot.com/2008/03/commercial-real-estate-is-now-slowing.html
October 2008 I discuss how the slowdown is impacting malls
http://www.blogger.com/posts.g?blogID=6814453905154617386&searchType=ALL&txtKeywords=&label=commercial+credit+market
In late November I talk about the commercial real estate markets tanking and Ross Perot, a multi-billionaire based here in Dallas, getting impacted as one of the funds he invested in was hit. Then he got hit the following week or two in ANOTHER fund that closed due to redemptions.
http://betterbizbooks.blogspot.com/2008/11/commercial-real-estate-finally-tanking.html
Here is a 12/2008 observation of mine re: commerical real estate.
http://betterbizbooks.blogspot.com/2008/12/great-follow-up-interview-on-commercial.html
Finally, my take today.....
1) I've seen a few restaurants NOT opening in the Plano area that were scheduled to.
2) I have heard of a restaurant chain that was opening 2 restaurants a week in early 2008 scaling back to 1 or so by 2009.
3) I don't see strip centers filling up at the same rate they used to.
4) I've heard from friends/associates in the industry (or friends of them) that TONS of deals aren't happening. People can't get access to the capital, which is a good thing in my opinion. We need to "fill in" the capacity we have (open store sites), re-model what is already outstanding and then FIND NEW tenants for the locations that will inevitably end up closing in 2009. All we have to do is look around to see the impact.
The commercial real estate market of the last few years was driven by consumers being on a HUGE spending binge. The consumers are more leveraged than ever, their credit is being cut off and that reduced spending is going to work its way "through the system." Some spending will happen but I think we are talking about a MAJOR seismic change for 2009. Fast growing areas will see new projects but ALOT of businesses will be impacted as the U.S. consumer pulls back and tries to save $$$ vs. spending more than they make, going into debt galore :) I think, at a minimum, that is a 20% shift in consumer spending. Think of negative savings vs. 4%-5% savings. That alone is nearly a 10% swing and then, if you take into account that consumers must begin paying off their debt in 2009 (As Oprah/Suze Orman are proposing to their viewers) than you could easily see spending cut by 10% just to PAY off previous spending.
Dan Ross
http://www.DanRoss.info
http://betterbizbooks.blogspot.com/2008/03/commercial-real-estate-is-now-slowing.html
October 2008 I discuss how the slowdown is impacting malls
http://www.blogger.com/posts.g?blogID=6814453905154617386&searchType=ALL&txtKeywords=&label=commercial+credit+market
In late November I talk about the commercial real estate markets tanking and Ross Perot, a multi-billionaire based here in Dallas, getting impacted as one of the funds he invested in was hit. Then he got hit the following week or two in ANOTHER fund that closed due to redemptions.
http://betterbizbooks.blogspot.com/2008/11/commercial-real-estate-finally-tanking.html
Here is a 12/2008 observation of mine re: commerical real estate.
http://betterbizbooks.blogspot.com/2008/12/great-follow-up-interview-on-commercial.html
Finally, my take today.....
1) I've seen a few restaurants NOT opening in the Plano area that were scheduled to.
2) I have heard of a restaurant chain that was opening 2 restaurants a week in early 2008 scaling back to 1 or so by 2009.
3) I don't see strip centers filling up at the same rate they used to.
4) I've heard from friends/associates in the industry (or friends of them) that TONS of deals aren't happening. People can't get access to the capital, which is a good thing in my opinion. We need to "fill in" the capacity we have (open store sites), re-model what is already outstanding and then FIND NEW tenants for the locations that will inevitably end up closing in 2009. All we have to do is look around to see the impact.
The commercial real estate market of the last few years was driven by consumers being on a HUGE spending binge. The consumers are more leveraged than ever, their credit is being cut off and that reduced spending is going to work its way "through the system." Some spending will happen but I think we are talking about a MAJOR seismic change for 2009. Fast growing areas will see new projects but ALOT of businesses will be impacted as the U.S. consumer pulls back and tries to save $$$ vs. spending more than they make, going into debt galore :) I think, at a minimum, that is a 20% shift in consumer spending. Think of negative savings vs. 4%-5% savings. That alone is nearly a 10% swing and then, if you take into account that consumers must begin paying off their debt in 2009 (As Oprah/Suze Orman are proposing to their viewers) than you could easily see spending cut by 10% just to PAY off previous spending.
Dan Ross
http://www.DanRoss.info
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Solar Buildings Become Reality?
Check out the link below:
http://www.xprn.com/pr/09/01/09010411-1.html
Suntech (NYSE: STP) has built in solar panels into their front facade of their new HQ. The array, which can generate up to 1 MegaWatt, is plugged into the local electrical grid. The company claims to be the world's largest photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturer and I think they are today.
Just something to think about as the green revolution starts to take hold in the next few years. Architechts will have the capacity to build buildings that will generate MORE power than they use as technological advances in solar power will enable this to occur. Obviously having such a large solar exposure helps. This probably wouldn't be as beneficial in NY, NY :)
Dan Ross
http://www.DanRoss.info/
http://www.xprn.com/pr/09/01/09010411-1.html
Suntech (NYSE: STP) has built in solar panels into their front facade of their new HQ. The array, which can generate up to 1 MegaWatt, is plugged into the local electrical grid. The company claims to be the world's largest photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturer and I think they are today.
Just something to think about as the green revolution starts to take hold in the next few years. Architechts will have the capacity to build buildings that will generate MORE power than they use as technological advances in solar power will enable this to occur. Obviously having such a large solar exposure helps. This probably wouldn't be as beneficial in NY, NY :)
Dan Ross
http://www.DanRoss.info/
Monday, January 12, 2009
Top 10 Retailers by Conversion Rates
http://www.marketingcharts.com/direct/top-10-online-retailers-by-conversion-rate-october-2008-7014/
Interesting statistics: Office Depot and Staples are in the top 10. ProFlowers, Blair.com, Talbots.com,Lands End, LL Bean, QVC.com and Ebay are amongst the others.
Basically what this looks at is the percentage of people that received email during the month vs. purchased goods from the online retailer. Could the e-mails convert the list into sales? That is what this tracks....
Dan Ross
http://www.danross.info/
Interesting statistics: Office Depot and Staples are in the top 10. ProFlowers, Blair.com, Talbots.com,Lands End, LL Bean, QVC.com and Ebay are amongst the others.
Basically what this looks at is the percentage of people that received email during the month vs. purchased goods from the online retailer. Could the e-mails convert the list into sales? That is what this tracks....
Dan Ross
http://www.danross.info/
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Unemployment passes 7%, next stop 8% +
Wow, these guys are starting to bring up 9%-10% unemployment now.
I posted my thoughts on 9%-10% unemployment months ago here. People just did NOT understand how bad it was out there in the business world and now they are starting to see the negative stuff slice through the economy.
http://betterbizbooks.blogspot.com/2008/11/unemployment-zoomed-past-10-million65.html
I still think we have quite a few more people that need to get on the bandwagon that unemployment is a LAGGING indicator.
I'll say it again til I am blue in the face....
This economic cycle and downturn is being caused by something NOT SEEN IN 80 years! This is a CREDIT CRUNCH / devaluation cycle and it will take quite a bit of time to work through the system. It can happen quickly or slowly. That is the choice of politicians and policy makers. Either way, I think it will be painful for many Americans. I hate writing it but I think that is the way it plays out.
Here is a link to my post on what happens when we have to deleverage
http://betterbizbooks.blogspot.com/2008/11/what-happens-with-deleveraging.html
Dan Ross
http://www.danross.info/
I posted my thoughts on 9%-10% unemployment months ago here. People just did NOT understand how bad it was out there in the business world and now they are starting to see the negative stuff slice through the economy.
http://betterbizbooks.blogspot.com/2008/11/unemployment-zoomed-past-10-million65.html
I still think we have quite a few more people that need to get on the bandwagon that unemployment is a LAGGING indicator.
I'll say it again til I am blue in the face....
This economic cycle and downturn is being caused by something NOT SEEN IN 80 years! This is a CREDIT CRUNCH / devaluation cycle and it will take quite a bit of time to work through the system. It can happen quickly or slowly. That is the choice of politicians and policy makers. Either way, I think it will be painful for many Americans. I hate writing it but I think that is the way it plays out.
Here is a link to my post on what happens when we have to deleverage
http://betterbizbooks.blogspot.com/2008/11/what-happens-with-deleveraging.html
Dan Ross
http://www.danross.info/
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Inflation coming back - Impact to the markets?
Another bearish call on the U.S. dollar
As we print $$$ to finance our deficits (because we likely won't be able to sell all of the bonds we need to finance our national debt/deficits) it will cause the U.S. dollar to fall in value.
The problem with this is that it will commodies like corn, oil, etc to rise in price since they are priced in U.S. dollars. The major commodity markets of the world are based here in the U.S. and have been priced in $$$ for years :)
A falling dollar will, in turn, keep interest rates from declining more.
I was optimistic re: lower rates this year, due to continued weakness in the U.S. economy as we try to deleverage the system. We hit the 4.5% interest rates I thought we would hit in the market (I know folks that got rates as low as 4 3/8% and 4.5% with 1 point down on 30 year fixed notes) but I think that might be the bottom.
With the dollar collapsing interest rates will get FORCED upwards by the market, thereby eliminating the refinancing market in mortgages that is EXTREMELY strong right now. I hope it doesn't happen but that is what my gut is saying will happen.
What are your thoughts on the market? Let me know in the comment section.
Dan Ross
http://www.DanRoss.info
As we print $$$ to finance our deficits (because we likely won't be able to sell all of the bonds we need to finance our national debt/deficits) it will cause the U.S. dollar to fall in value.
The problem with this is that it will commodies like corn, oil, etc to rise in price since they are priced in U.S. dollars. The major commodity markets of the world are based here in the U.S. and have been priced in $$$ for years :)
A falling dollar will, in turn, keep interest rates from declining more.
I was optimistic re: lower rates this year, due to continued weakness in the U.S. economy as we try to deleverage the system. We hit the 4.5% interest rates I thought we would hit in the market (I know folks that got rates as low as 4 3/8% and 4.5% with 1 point down on 30 year fixed notes) but I think that might be the bottom.
With the dollar collapsing interest rates will get FORCED upwards by the market, thereby eliminating the refinancing market in mortgages that is EXTREMELY strong right now. I hope it doesn't happen but that is what my gut is saying will happen.
What are your thoughts on the market? Let me know in the comment section.
Dan Ross
http://www.DanRoss.info
How to invest in Chinese Online Growth
An S&P 500 company provides some insight into how we would invest in the sector.
Baidu, The9 and ShandaInteractive are his 3 recommendations.
The9 is based on "World of Warcraft" licensing for China. They have more users than any other country in the world for that game and have exclusive rights in China. The stock, according to the analyst, that is trading near cash.
Shanda Interactive
3 Others they are looking at are GIGM (BUY), KONG (not buy) and JRJC.
My take is that Shanda and The9 are very interesting to look at:
1) The9 trades at cash levels so, as long as they get their license renewed this year from Blizzard-Activision (probably at higher terms like the analyst said) the stock could make a healthy run upwards.
2) Shanda Interactive is a developer of MMORPG games (massively multi-player online role-playing games) and casual online games in China. Below is a link to some of their press releases in the last twelve months.
http://www.xprn.com/xprn/storyCenter.do?method=queryByDate&langId=1
Dan Ross
http://www.danross.info/
Baidu, The9 and ShandaInteractive are his 3 recommendations.
The9 is based on "World of Warcraft" licensing for China. They have more users than any other country in the world for that game and have exclusive rights in China. The stock, according to the analyst, that is trading near cash.
Shanda Interactive
3 Others they are looking at are GIGM (BUY), KONG (not buy) and JRJC.
My take is that Shanda and The9 are very interesting to look at:
1) The9 trades at cash levels so, as long as they get their license renewed this year from Blizzard-Activision (probably at higher terms like the analyst said) the stock could make a healthy run upwards.
2) Shanda Interactive is a developer of MMORPG games (massively multi-player online role-playing games) and casual online games in China. Below is a link to some of their press releases in the last twelve months.
http://www.xprn.com/xprn/storyCenter.do?method=queryByDate&langId=1
Dan Ross
http://www.danross.info/
Titans of Tech (Napster, Microsoft, Apple, Oracle)
Great 2 minute tidbits of insight. Steve Jobs is the best interview of them all....
Shawn Fanning and Napster
Microsoft Bill Gates
J Allard (creator of Xbox)
Steve Jobs
Larry Ellison
Hope everyone enjoyed those!
Dan Ross
http://www.danross.info/
Shawn Fanning and Napster
Microsoft Bill Gates
J Allard (creator of Xbox)
Steve Jobs
Larry Ellison
Hope everyone enjoyed those!
Dan Ross
http://www.danross.info/
Friday, January 9, 2009
Economy is slumping....Now what?
So here is what we have seen in the last week:
The ISM Manufacturing Index hit its lowest level since 1980 (and manufacturing surveys in Europe and China also nosedived).
U.S. consumer confidence fell to a record low in December, as reported Wednesday.
Also Wednesday, the Case-Shiller Index registered a record 18% drop in October vs. year-ago levels, bringing the decline from housing's peak to 25%.
So here are my predictions for 2009:
Continued declines in mortgage rates. Only so many people can refinance and only so many have current values greater than the appraised value that will happen. When many are asked to add equity (ie. invest more $$$ to refinance) many people won't have the cash to do it. I think 4.5% rates on 30 year notes will happen and be quite the norm as the Federal Reserve tries to revive the U.S. Economy
Many people will be looking for work and having a tough time finding it in 2009. I see unemployment going to 10% if the auto companies go belly up. Given that we have now sunk $10-$15 billion into them we'll probably sink another $25 billion into them later, throwing good money after bad.
Will inflation hijack 4.5% interest rates? It is possible that the U.S. dollar could fall more than ever, which could drive inflation through the roof and take interest rates HIGHER vs. lower. We have to borrow $$$ from people to finance our debt and they might charge us (as a country) MORE to get that cash given our slowed growth, higher leverage ratios, etc.
The stock market will continue a downward slide of 15%-20% as EPS estimates for 2009 begin to get ratched downward. I think S&P 670-700 is a very reasonable level for the index. Just my 2 cents. Due your DD there and read/view some of the opinions I've posted here from others over the last few months. Look at other Dan Ross Forecast posts.
Dan Ross
http://DanRoss.info
The ISM Manufacturing Index hit its lowest level since 1980 (and manufacturing surveys in Europe and China also nosedived).
U.S. consumer confidence fell to a record low in December, as reported Wednesday.
Also Wednesday, the Case-Shiller Index registered a record 18% drop in October vs. year-ago levels, bringing the decline from housing's peak to 25%.
So here are my predictions for 2009:
Continued declines in mortgage rates. Only so many people can refinance and only so many have current values greater than the appraised value that will happen. When many are asked to add equity (ie. invest more $$$ to refinance) many people won't have the cash to do it. I think 4.5% rates on 30 year notes will happen and be quite the norm as the Federal Reserve tries to revive the U.S. Economy
Many people will be looking for work and having a tough time finding it in 2009. I see unemployment going to 10% if the auto companies go belly up. Given that we have now sunk $10-$15 billion into them we'll probably sink another $25 billion into them later, throwing good money after bad.
Will inflation hijack 4.5% interest rates? It is possible that the U.S. dollar could fall more than ever, which could drive inflation through the roof and take interest rates HIGHER vs. lower. We have to borrow $$$ from people to finance our debt and they might charge us (as a country) MORE to get that cash given our slowed growth, higher leverage ratios, etc.
The stock market will continue a downward slide of 15%-20% as EPS estimates for 2009 begin to get ratched downward. I think S&P 670-700 is a very reasonable level for the index. Just my 2 cents. Due your DD there and read/view some of the opinions I've posted here from others over the last few months. Look at other Dan Ross Forecast posts.
Dan Ross
http://DanRoss.info
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