Solar Buildings Become Reality?

Check out the link below:
http://www.xprn.com/pr/09/01/09010411-1.html

Suntech (NYSE: STP) has built in solar panels into their front facade of their new HQ. The array, which can generate up to 1 MegaWatt, is plugged into the local electrical grid. The company claims to be the world's largest photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturer and I think they are today.

Just something to think about as the green revolution starts to take hold in the next few years. Architechts will have the capacity to build buildings that will generate MORE power than they use as technological advances in solar power will enable this to occur. Obviously having such a large solar exposure helps. This probably wouldn't be as beneficial in NY, NY :)




Dan Ross
http://www.DanRoss.info/

China Cuts Rates by 1% - Most in 10 years!

So the Chinese are stimulating their economy by spending nearly $600 billion by the government (announced last week and posted here on the blog).
http://betterbizbooks.blogspot.com/2008/11/chinese-economy-slowing-down-quickly.html


Now they are trying to stimulate their local economy by encouraging more lending. People will be paid less to save so they will need to invest their $$$ (both banks and individuals). As I have pointed out, China's economy is 50% export based so their economy gets beaten up pretty good when Americans stop buying stuff due to the credit crunch and concerns about their economy. Will it spark increased spending amongst the Chinese consumers? Time will tell....I am not holding my breath though :)



Dan Ross
http://www.betterbizbooks.com/

Still cautious on the stock market despite intraday reversal here

So here are a few articles I have come across in recent days as well as observations

http://seekingalpha.com/article/105472-why-i-sold-my-china-positions

1) Nortel, JCPenney & Pizza Hut all had layoffs here in Dallas.

2) American Express became a bank. They now get access to the gov'ts coffers via discount window and can sell their securitized credit card balances to the government. They get liquidity. WOW!

3) There is more push to get these auto manufacturers part of the bailout package. Did you know that GM, less than a decade ago, paid out dividends & bought back stock worth $20 BILLION? If you knew that, how would you feel about bailing out the auto manufacturers, investors and unions? If they didn't pay out the cash the unions would have taken it via DEMANDING higher wages for an "honest day" of work.

Which then brings me to this CNBC/LinkedIn.com poll. Looks like most American's, by state or career path, don't agree with the auto manufacturers getting one penny....

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27593480/

4) Finally, unemployment / weekly job claims data today stunk. Below are some graphs re: unemployment and the trends. With every passing week and datapoint I see (lots of new data) I get more adamant that 10% unemployment is possible.

Dan Ross

http://www.BetterBizBooks.com/

Chinese Economy Slowing Down Quickly

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2008/11/10/focus-media-warns-on-slowing-china-ad-market-stk-falls/

It wouldn't surprise me to see Chinese stocks down notably tomorrow. After the bell, an industry stalwart (Focus Media) and big chinese holding of many mutual funds/hedge funds announced they are missing guidance slightly this quarter but guiding down EPS estimates SIGNIFICANTLY for next quarter.

Which begs the question.....How much is the Chinese economy slowing down? Will even 5% growth happen next year? Is their stimulus package enough? How much will Google's stock price fall since their EPS is based on advertising as well. Yes, this is China vs. the U.S. but people have been hearing rumors about a slowdown in online advertising spending and an "informal, unofficial" hiring policy per the video below.



Dan Ross
http://www.betterbizbooks.com/

Great Article re: China and their growth in the next century

Bill Mann, of the Motley Fool, thinks Chinese stocks are priced ridiculously cheap right now.

http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2008/11/07/why-i-believe-in-the-chinese-miracle.aspx?source=ihprlklcb0000002


Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com

Chinese Stocks to Double....Street.com link

The video below talks about how Chinese stocks are being SIGNIFICNATLY undervalued right now. I 100% agree with him.
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=289004&cl=9469944&src=finance&ch=633473

Additionally, a new Earthquake in China, of 6.2 magnitude. Last time that happened CPSL stock soared due to thoughts re: re-building and the need for steel. Granted, it should help GSI more than CPSL as CPSL primarily is involved in sheet metal (think appliances, end devices and not steel beams.)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080831/ap_on_re_as/china_earthquake

Dan
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com

Some Economics of Food.....for thought :) UPDATE

This is an update with some updated factoids for people to chew on.....VERY interesting numbers

from http://www.pigsite.com/

"Processing is the most vulnerable player in the Canadian pork industry today, says Bouma, with the U.S. holding a significant advantage in terms of capacity and labour intensity. Comparing the productivity of the top U.S. and Canadian processors highlights this gap. Today, the U.S.’s largest 29 plants process 21,000 hogs per day while Canada’s largest 29 produce an average of 3,200 hogs per day. The result? U.S. producers put an estimated six to 10 more dollars in their wallets per hog sold compared to their Canadian counterparts. "

So how does this compare to Chinese Pork/Production???

From HOGS/FEED (two chinese pork raisers/processors). Here are their recent filings. Both companies are growing ENORMOUSLY. Wall Street seems to indicate that HOGS is the most undervalued of the two.

HOGS
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080811/cnm010.html?.v=59

FEED
AgFeed Industries bought 4 more Hog Farms recently and has been consolidating the industry throughout China.

From http://www.forbes.com/

http://www.forbes.com/2008/08/22/china-agricultural-imports-markets-econ-cx_tw_0821markets29.html?partner=yahootix

"Given the rapid rise in food prices in China amid increasing wealth, investors could stand to gain from exposure to U.S.-listed Chinese companies with 90% to 100% exposure to China, such as AgFeed Industries (nasdaq: FEED - news - people ), American Dairy (nyse: ADY - news - people ), HQ Sustainable Marine Industries (amex: HQS - news - people ), Synutra International (nasdaq: SYUT - news - people ) and Zhongpin (nasdaq: HOGS - news - people )."

I saved the best udpate for last :) Looks like this company is hiring some a very senior american to help develop its company.

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080820/0426486.html

"NASDAQ Global Market listed AgFeed Industries (http://www.agfeedinc.com/) is a US company with its primary operations in China. AgFeed has two profitable business lines -- premix animal feed and hog production. AgFeed is China's largest commercial hog producer in terms of total annual hog production as well as the largest premix feed company in terms of revenues. China is the world's largest hog producing country that produces over 600 million hogs per year, compared to approximately 100 million hogs in the US. China also has the world's largest consumer base for pork consumption. Over 65% of total meat consumed in China is pork. Hog production in China enjoys income tax free status. The pre-mix feed market in which AgFeed operates is an approximately $1.6 billion segment of China's $40 billion per year animal feed market, according to the China Feed Industry Association."

Original Post

China, 1995: average person eats 55 lbs of meat per year. China, 2007: average person eats 116 lbs of meat per year. Here is what I can't tell you. What kind of meat?

It takes 15 lbs of grain to produce 1 lb of meat. According to expert figures, China has increased grain requirements to 350 million metric tonnes in 2007 from 150 just 12 years earlier. That’s a +133% increase just so the average Chinese citizen can enjoy more meat.

Fertilizer is used to produce grain to feed the animals – in fact, for every pound of beef produced, a steer must consume 15 pounds of grain. This further drives up the demand and the cost of fertilizer. So we can understand why there is a demand for more fertilizers and why stocks such as Potash, Mosaic, etc. are going through the roof right now.

How much feed does a pig need though? I'll get that in the upcoming days.....Info. re: beef isn't applicable. Why?

Pork occupies a special place in the Chinese diet and economy. It is estimated that the Chinese consume more pork than any other nation. This makes sense given that pork is also estimated to account for two-thirds of the average Chinese's protein intake. According to this article below

http://www.smallcapinvestor.com/smallcapinsights/china/2008-07-17-check_on_china_agfeed_industries

"It is prepared in almost every conceivable way, from roasted whole suckling pigs, commonly served during holiday .easts, to sweet and sour pork, whose Americanized version is a Chinese restaurant staple."

Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com

Small Cap Returns in August

From http://www.smallcapinvestor.com/

"Small-cap stocks in China posted double-digit losses on average during August, while small caps in India were virtually unchanged in the month through Aug. 25, according to a Press Trust of India report that cited data from Citigroup Global. For the region as a whole, 80% of all Asian stocks posted negative returns, with a median loss of 8.1%."

I'll follow that up by saying I found MANY, MANY chinese stocks that were down 40%-60%. I have noticed quite a few chinese small cap stocks that were posting 100% - 200% growth rates (some organic growth....others through acquisition) slowing their growth rates to 10%-30%. As consolidation in their economy & overall economy are slowing many investors are growing wary of chinese small cap stocks.

I still think there are a TON of good stocks to be found and then traded from time to time. Some should be held for the long-term. I'll be posting a listing of some of interesting finds I have come across in the next few weeks.

Dan Ross
http://www.betterbizbooks.com/

Things changing in Macau?? WHOA!

Gaming stocks got pounded today, based on the article below, on news that mainland Chinese will only be able to visit the place twice a year vs. currently allowed to visit the island about 6 times or so per year.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080819/casino_stocks.html?.v=1

This clearly has put a ceiling on the expectations surrounding gaming stocks. MGM Mirage (MGM), Las Vegas Sands (Venetian Owners: LVS) & Wynn Resorts (WYNN) got hammered today. Oh, and that really puts a dent on me going into Melco (MPEL), which I mentioned a few days ago. I think I'll be holding off on investing until all the analysts take their EPS estimates down and downward pressure in the shares slow down.

Dan Ross
http://www.betterbizbooks.com/

ABAT takes it on the chin today

A few days ago I commented that I thought ABAT (Advanced Battery Technologies) would likely trend downwards towards $4.00 and then likely $3.75.

Well, I didn't expect it to come so soon! ABAT hit $3.75 today as the stock price gapped down today on negative U.S. PPI data and other weak economic news. While the stock price recovered and closed near intraday highs I think $3.75 levels will be re-tested and I am concerned the stock might make a run through those levels and head to $3.00.

I have cash going into my trading account (from savings) for such an event. I think that ABAT raised their outstanding shares by 6% but capacity by 165%. Given that the shares were issued near $4.50 and options near $5.50 I am HIGHLY confident re: future potential upside in the shares from today's levels. Nonetheless, I'll be patient and wait.

Why wait? I think the stock market is rolling over and going to re-test lows see in July.



The financials appear to be getting beaten up again on concerns of liquidity again.

Given all the recent settlements re: auction rate securities and other bond related items such a concern seems logical. I am not sure re: everyone's capitalization but additional bank failures are HIGHLY likely based on what the FDIC has been saying.

http://www.thestreet.com/s/most-read-bank-stocks-headed-to-zero/newsanalysis/stockpickr/10433780.html?puc=_htmlbooyah

Dan Ross

http://www.BetterBizBooks.com/

Gulf Resources (GFRE.OB) - up 40% today. Reversal??

Bulletin Board stocks....YUCK!

But when I see annualized revenue of $100 million, EPS of .25 for the year, a growing market (chinese demand), a license to grow from the government (only 6 companies have Bromine mining licenses and there are TONS of them that are being bought out right now that are NOT licensed. That makes for good prices :) )

GFRE mines/produces Bromine, a chemical used in many daily uses. As some stock became free to sell (previous acquisitions/consulting) apparently it was sold at ALL COST, and hammerred the stock price.

The company has retained a new IR firm, http://www.ccgelite.com/ and announced 2Q results earlier today at 100% top line and 100% bottom line growth.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080814/20080814005399.html?.v=1

With $0.25 in EPS, good cash flow from operations (negative cash flow due to acquisitions/debt) the company could easily trade at $2.50 to $5.00 based on my calcs (10x to 20x multiple)

Here are some other ways of looking at it

$84 million to $90 million in sales this year with 100 million shares = .84 per share at 1x sales or 1.68 at 2x sales. With EPS of .25 trading at 3x EPS is RIDICULOUS and I think a 10x multiple is conservative, making it a triple from today's closing price of $0.85. I bought 3000 shares at $0.63 the other day, which is looking pretty good right now. Having said that, I bought some on the way down at $.80, .70 and .60. When the stock hit $.48 I thought I was going to throw up as I didn't "know something" but I feel better after seeing the published reports/SEC fililings and new IR firm coming on board.

It took the stock 11 days to decline from 1.80 to .60 and the company DID NOT comment at all, which was VERY frustrating for investors. I am very curious to see where the stock will end up in a month or two from now but, after today's EPS results were announced, the stock jumped 40%. I think a run to $1.00 seems quick and $1.20 seems possible in the next few days. I would love to see $1.80 in eleven trading days (just like the decline) but I don't know how many buyers will come out of the woodwork to buy the stock.

Dan Ross

http://www.betterbizideas.com/

China to have Largest Economy in the World by 2035

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080709/ts_afp/useconomysurveychina

Full Report @
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=20279&prog=zch
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/pb61_keidel_final.pdf

Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com

PR firms for Chinese Based Stocks

There are some good ones in here.....

CCG Elite is a PR firm for many leading-edge, profitable and fast growing Chinese companies

http://www.ccgelite.com/clients3.asp?id=1&id1=2

Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizBooks.com

CPSL update

FYI

http://www.thestreetwatch.com/

If CPSL = $1 billion = roughly a $17 stock. The Shanghai index closed up 2.2% today. Back “off to the races” either today or Thursday…In my opinion this thing is going to run higher through the end of next week, taking an occasional breath as it outstretches some of the shorter-term averages and some people take some profits.

Steel prices going higher per the article below
http://shoppingcart.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2008-05-19T182142Z_01_N19518334_RTRUKOC_0_US-STEEL-PRICES.xml&WTmodLoc=HealthNewsHome_R3_reutersEdge-1

FYI, pick #3 reacted as I thought it would. The stock was off 15% but I still LOVE what I heard. Given that it is dead money and CPSL pulled back I sold that position and bought some more CPSL yesterday. I hope to build back my initial position in that other company ASAP. Right now I just think there is more ST upside in CPSL. I am about 100% positive I won't be recognizing the losses on those pick #3 (tiny loss) as the "wash rule" will likely apply. (ie. buying back within 30 days of taking the loss, meaning the loss carries forward into my new cost basis for tax purposes.)

Dan Ross
http://www.betterbizbooks.com/