http://buzz.yahoo.com/buzzlog/92031/?
Cosmetic sales were up 25% during the great depression. One of the few categories to experience sales growth during that time frame.
Sales of lipstick were up 100% after September 11, 2001. Apparently lipstick sales are up 40%
in recent months.
Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizBooks.com
Showing posts with label China economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label China economy. Show all posts
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Chinese Economy Slowing Down Quickly
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2008/11/10/focus-media-warns-on-slowing-china-ad-market-stk-falls/
It wouldn't surprise me to see Chinese stocks down notably tomorrow. After the bell, an industry stalwart (Focus Media) and big chinese holding of many mutual funds/hedge funds announced they are missing guidance slightly this quarter but guiding down EPS estimates SIGNIFICANTLY for next quarter.
Which begs the question.....How much is the Chinese economy slowing down? Will even 5% growth happen next year? Is their stimulus package enough? How much will Google's stock price fall since their EPS is based on advertising as well. Yes, this is China vs. the U.S. but people have been hearing rumors about a slowdown in online advertising spending and an "informal, unofficial" hiring policy per the video below.
Dan Ross
http://www.betterbizbooks.com/
It wouldn't surprise me to see Chinese stocks down notably tomorrow. After the bell, an industry stalwart (Focus Media) and big chinese holding of many mutual funds/hedge funds announced they are missing guidance slightly this quarter but guiding down EPS estimates SIGNIFICANTLY for next quarter.
Which begs the question.....How much is the Chinese economy slowing down? Will even 5% growth happen next year? Is their stimulus package enough? How much will Google's stock price fall since their EPS is based on advertising as well. Yes, this is China vs. the U.S. but people have been hearing rumors about a slowdown in online advertising spending and an "informal, unofficial" hiring policy per the video below.
Dan Ross
http://www.betterbizbooks.com/
Sunday, November 9, 2008
China's $586 billion stimulus package announced today
Today China announced a $586 billion spending package to boost domestic demand while vowing to carry out "moderately easy monetary policies." China's Cabinet has approved a plan to invest $586 billion on infrastructure and social welfare by the end of 2010. They also say they will adopt an "active" fiscal policy and will offer tax help of 120 billion yuan to enterprises.
Key Questions/Points:
1) This dwarfs the $150 billion amount the U.S. spent in February to stimulate the economy.
2) Where will the Chinese get the $$$$? That question alone will cause a ripple effect as people will anticipate that they will be buying fewer U.S. treasury bonds and take more of their currency reserves back home with them to spend on their local economy. This might hurt U.S. stocks/bonds further and cause the U.S. stock market to pull back.
3) This should boost Chinese-based companies that do the bulk of their business in China and sell primarily into their economy/market. Remember 50% of their economy is export related.
Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com
Key Questions/Points:
1) This dwarfs the $150 billion amount the U.S. spent in February to stimulate the economy.
2) Where will the Chinese get the $$$$? That question alone will cause a ripple effect as people will anticipate that they will be buying fewer U.S. treasury bonds and take more of their currency reserves back home with them to spend on their local economy. This might hurt U.S. stocks/bonds further and cause the U.S. stock market to pull back.
3) This should boost Chinese-based companies that do the bulk of their business in China and sell primarily into their economy/market. Remember 50% of their economy is export related.
Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com
Saturday, November 8, 2008
The best way to invest in China?
Interesting take on how to play the growth of the Chinese economy. I think it is a pretty sound strategy. Tough to gauge everyone's EPS though right now. Everything I keep seeing right now says OPEC is cutting production, which will BOOST barrel prices and cause oil to go back up at some point.
The real question is "when will demand destruction end?"
Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com
The real question is "when will demand destruction end?"
Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Economic Slump is hitting China workers now
China's exports are drying up due to a weakening economy. Mattel and others don't need as many factories working given rising inventories and weakening demand.
I have to wonder if all the Chinese scandals are catching up to the economy as well. Toys with lead paint a few years ago, milk this year.....
Dan Ross
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Chinese Milk Scare! Interesting link
http://seekingalpha.com/article/95885-synutra-goes-beyond-government-orders-in-infant-formula-recall
"A second child in China has died after being given tainted infant formula, and more than a thousand other children became sick from various forms of the product. China’s Ministry of Health has determined the problem lies in the chemical additive melamine. The chemical is never supposed to be used in infant formula, but its addition increases the reading levels of protein in milk, though not the actual amount of protein. The MOH theorizes that the chemical was added by collection centers, rather than individual farmers or formula companies.
The scandal reminds the worldwide public of safety problems caused by poor regulation in China-sourced food and drugs, even though China-produced formula is not exported. The milk powder that caused the problem came from the Sanlu Group, one of the largest producers of dairy producers in China. Sanlu recalled its milk powder last week. However, there have been complaints of problems for almost six months. The first child died on May 1 and the second on July 22. The long time lag has caused complaining in some quarters that the company has been dragging its feet before taking this drastic action. The action is certainly drastic: the MOH says that over 10,000 tons of milk powder have been recalled.
Melamine was also the culprit in the China dog food scandal that occurred last year. "
Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com/
"A second child in China has died after being given tainted infant formula, and more than a thousand other children became sick from various forms of the product. China’s Ministry of Health has determined the problem lies in the chemical additive melamine. The chemical is never supposed to be used in infant formula, but its addition increases the reading levels of protein in milk, though not the actual amount of protein. The MOH theorizes that the chemical was added by collection centers, rather than individual farmers or formula companies.
The scandal reminds the worldwide public of safety problems caused by poor regulation in China-sourced food and drugs, even though China-produced formula is not exported. The milk powder that caused the problem came from the Sanlu Group, one of the largest producers of dairy producers in China. Sanlu recalled its milk powder last week. However, there have been complaints of problems for almost six months. The first child died on May 1 and the second on July 22. The long time lag has caused complaining in some quarters that the company has been dragging its feet before taking this drastic action. The action is certainly drastic: the MOH says that over 10,000 tons of milk powder have been recalled.
Melamine was also the culprit in the China dog food scandal that occurred last year. "
Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com/
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Blog on China from Reuters
Interesting blog worth bookmarking....
http://blogs.reuters.com/summits/category/china-century-07/
Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com/
http://blogs.reuters.com/summits/category/china-century-07/
Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com/
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
China to have Largest Economy in the World by 2035
Monday, June 30, 2008
Chinese Demand for Oil vs. their own supply of oil
The bottom line is that their supply isn't keeping pace with their demand and, as this is happening, oil is spiking. They've basically sent people throughout the world to approach companies about purchasing their supplies + they are aggressively pursuing oil themselves via CNOOC, a nationalized Chinese oil company listed on the NYSE.
Dan Ross
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Investing 2008 & Beyond - Why I have been out...
The "lack of posting" for the last 1.5 weeks stems from my desire to get back into investing in a big way. I recently conducted an audit of my 401k account and was quite disappointed with the returns YTD vs. the markets, despite making a few trades within my reach that generated positive returns. Basically, two of my funds stunk it up for me and I underindexed at -6.8% vs. -5.6% for the S&P 500 during the time period measured.
Getting to the point.....
Moving forward you'll see the same old posts as before EXCEPT I'll be adding a bunch of my opinions re: the stock market, interesting trends, stocks I think are worth looking at, etc. All the standard disclosures will be ALL over the place as I am not an investment advisor. I was at one point, working as a research analyst (jr./sr.) for about 3 years after graduate school before growing very disenchanted with the sales mentality involved in the business. Only did I learn after the fact how disengenious the industry had become (banking/research relationships that were unbelievable.)
Two things to chew on today...
1) More wind energy moving forward.
http://tv.changewave.com/CWTV/rant_of_the_week/2008/05/profits-blowin-in-the-wind-05-07-08-CWIA.html
2) A great chart showing Chinese coal consumption
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_coa_con-energy-coal-consumption
Bottom Line: China has polluted their environment GALORE over the last 10-15 years. They are focused TREMENDOUSLY on eco-friendly power options moving forward. As they do this, and change their subsidies for power (less to coal) major changes are in-store and might present interesting opportunities in wind/solar energy alternatives. When China chooses to do something it truly SHIFTS the supply/demand dynamic in an industry and that can light a fire to any companies revenue/EPS/stock price!
Dan Ross
http://www.betterbizbooks.com/
Getting to the point.....
Moving forward you'll see the same old posts as before EXCEPT I'll be adding a bunch of my opinions re: the stock market, interesting trends, stocks I think are worth looking at, etc. All the standard disclosures will be ALL over the place as I am not an investment advisor. I was at one point, working as a research analyst (jr./sr.) for about 3 years after graduate school before growing very disenchanted with the sales mentality involved in the business. Only did I learn after the fact how disengenious the industry had become (banking/research relationships that were unbelievable.)
Two things to chew on today...
1) More wind energy moving forward.
http://tv.changewave.com/CWTV/rant_of_the_week/2008/05/profits-blowin-in-the-wind-05-07-08-CWIA.html
2) A great chart showing Chinese coal consumption
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_coa_con-energy-coal-consumption
Bottom Line: China has polluted their environment GALORE over the last 10-15 years. They are focused TREMENDOUSLY on eco-friendly power options moving forward. As they do this, and change their subsidies for power (less to coal) major changes are in-store and might present interesting opportunities in wind/solar energy alternatives. When China chooses to do something it truly SHIFTS the supply/demand dynamic in an industry and that can light a fire to any companies revenue/EPS/stock price!
Dan Ross
http://www.betterbizbooks.com/
Monday, August 29, 2005
China / India Rise to Economic Powerhouses
Great article I stumbled across while trying to clean up the computer at home.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_34/b3948401.htm?campaign_id=spr_yahoo_china-india05
Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_34/b3948401.htm?campaign_id=spr_yahoo_china-india05
Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com
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