The federal government has no other choice but to put forth a massive bailout plan.
When the fed does this the value of the dollar is going to decline, which will cause the prices of commodities (oil in this case) to go higher.
This will cause a long-term demand for alternative energy products. This isn't some short-term fad.
I expect solar stocks to start taking off here in the next few weeks. I'll post some charts later tonight showing how they are bottoming out and set for a take-off.
The price of oil was trading at a low of $91.11 a barrel on September 17 and it closed at $108 or so on Friday, Sept 26th. That's a gain of 18% in a week or so.
Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com
Monday, September 29, 2008
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Oil and Gas Companies DOMINATE Fortune's Fastest Growing Companies
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortunefastestgrowing/2008/full_list/
Sigma designs designs blu-ray chips. Intuitive Surgical.....from there TONS of energy companies, from drillers/developers to service companies, etc.
Texas obviously had the most listed in the top 100 due to the energy companies :)
Texas had 25, California had 18 and NY had 8. That is 51 total of the top 100 companies! Then, if you look at those state's populations it also helps to explain it :) NY is surprising to me given the high tax rate. CA obviously is Silicon Valley driven....
#1 company, Arena Resources, looks interesting re: analyst targets, fast growing, etc. Here is a chart. A weekly close above $46 would be considered bullish from a technical perspective. Highest analyst target is $80 and avg is $65 or so. It is about a $45 stock today.
Sigma designs designs blu-ray chips. Intuitive Surgical.....from there TONS of energy companies, from drillers/developers to service companies, etc.
Texas obviously had the most listed in the top 100 due to the energy companies :)
Texas had 25, California had 18 and NY had 8. That is 51 total of the top 100 companies! Then, if you look at those state's populations it also helps to explain it :) NY is surprising to me given the high tax rate. CA obviously is Silicon Valley driven....
#1 company, Arena Resources, looks interesting re: analyst targets, fast growing, etc. Here is a chart. A weekly close above $46 would be considered bullish from a technical perspective. Highest analyst target is $80 and avg is $65 or so. It is about a $45 stock today.
Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
S&P 500 Rolling Over- Retest of Lows Likely to Happen.
S&P 500 is rolling over again with the charts breaking through short-term support and we never really got above any weekly downtrend levels (breaking the 20 day moving average.)
A re-test of last week’s lows is likely
Dan Ross
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Last week's markets......
So last week the stock market declined to new 52 week lows, only to soar again after the U.S. Government promised to bail out everyone with a "package/plan" estimated to cost U.S. taxpayers $700 million to $1 billion. The "cost" is tough to estimate as it will be determined years from now when profits/gains from the plan are determined. The downside of not doing something is that the U.S. stock market will probably drop in value somewhere in the TRILLIONS :) What remains to be seen is what impact this will have on the U.S. dollar, which has appreciated quite a bit over the last 2 months, recovering 1/2 of its declines vs. other currencies over the last 1.5 years.
So lets review the drama:
1) Fannie / Freddie get taken over by the U.S. government (after global monetary advisors were threatening to pull out billions of $$$ from the U.S. market. This effectively wiped out their shareholders and a U.S. Government advisor will now run the company.....
2) Merrill Lynch agreed to be bought by Bank of America for $44 to $50 billion. ML shareholders haven't approved the deal but they should agree to do the deal. This will put together the biggest retail broker company with the biggest bank distribution and the biggest mortgage company in the U.S. Oh yeah, and they are #2 or #3 in credit cards as well......The combined business will be ENORMOUS with some serious cross-selling capabilities. I have no doubt that the Merrill Lynch name will stay after the merger as it has SERIOUS brand equity. It will be Merrill Lynch, a Bank of America company.
3) WAMU - nobody loves them. Their deposits will keep them afloat for the immediate future but, if their losses in CA/FL continue to increase, they could end up going BK due having ZERO equity or via falling below federal government threshhold's for banks. Everyone watches eagerly to see if account holders begin to take deposits out of the bank and move them to other banks.
4) AIG apparently had assets but they weren't liquid assets and their business model needs liquidity/access to capital. When short-term funding market seized up it forced them to have some serious problems. The government apparently gave them a bridge loan, taking an 80% equity stake in the company. AIG, from what everyone seems to be saying, might be viable; it will just take a few months/up to a year for assets to be sold to pay down the bridge loan. When everything is said and done AIG will be a shell of what it is today but people might actually be able to figure out how the company really makes $$$ and how to assess the companies value by looking at debt vs. assets, which seemed to be why most analysts missed downgrading the company way before it ran into problems.
5) Goldman Sachs / Morgan Stanley - As of today I hear they are likely bank holding companies
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080921/bank_change.html
6) Finally, Jim Cramer on CNBC was telling folks to sell up to 20% of their assets based on the stock market's recovery on Thursday/Friday. He seems to think that these rallies should be sold into and that the market turbulence will continue for some time.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=861375679&play=1
Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com
Alt ED: 9-22-08 - Market down 375 and the U.S. dollar falling leads to soaring commodity prices. Oil spiked as much as $25 today alone. Can anyone say inflation? Here we go again....another shock to the system....
So lets review the drama:
1) Fannie / Freddie get taken over by the U.S. government (after global monetary advisors were threatening to pull out billions of $$$ from the U.S. market. This effectively wiped out their shareholders and a U.S. Government advisor will now run the company.....
2) Merrill Lynch agreed to be bought by Bank of America for $44 to $50 billion. ML shareholders haven't approved the deal but they should agree to do the deal. This will put together the biggest retail broker company with the biggest bank distribution and the biggest mortgage company in the U.S. Oh yeah, and they are #2 or #3 in credit cards as well......The combined business will be ENORMOUS with some serious cross-selling capabilities. I have no doubt that the Merrill Lynch name will stay after the merger as it has SERIOUS brand equity. It will be Merrill Lynch, a Bank of America company.
3) WAMU - nobody loves them. Their deposits will keep them afloat for the immediate future but, if their losses in CA/FL continue to increase, they could end up going BK due having ZERO equity or via falling below federal government threshhold's for banks. Everyone watches eagerly to see if account holders begin to take deposits out of the bank and move them to other banks.
4) AIG apparently had assets but they weren't liquid assets and their business model needs liquidity/access to capital. When short-term funding market seized up it forced them to have some serious problems. The government apparently gave them a bridge loan, taking an 80% equity stake in the company. AIG, from what everyone seems to be saying, might be viable; it will just take a few months/up to a year for assets to be sold to pay down the bridge loan. When everything is said and done AIG will be a shell of what it is today but people might actually be able to figure out how the company really makes $$$ and how to assess the companies value by looking at debt vs. assets, which seemed to be why most analysts missed downgrading the company way before it ran into problems.
5) Goldman Sachs / Morgan Stanley - As of today I hear they are likely bank holding companies
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080921/bank_change.html
6) Finally, Jim Cramer on CNBC was telling folks to sell up to 20% of their assets based on the stock market's recovery on Thursday/Friday. He seems to think that these rallies should be sold into and that the market turbulence will continue for some time.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=861375679&play=1
Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com
Alt ED: 9-22-08 - Market down 375 and the U.S. dollar falling leads to soaring commodity prices. Oil spiked as much as $25 today alone. Can anyone say inflation? Here we go again....another shock to the system....
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Chinese Milk Scare! Interesting link
http://seekingalpha.com/article/95885-synutra-goes-beyond-government-orders-in-infant-formula-recall
"A second child in China has died after being given tainted infant formula, and more than a thousand other children became sick from various forms of the product. China’s Ministry of Health has determined the problem lies in the chemical additive melamine. The chemical is never supposed to be used in infant formula, but its addition increases the reading levels of protein in milk, though not the actual amount of protein. The MOH theorizes that the chemical was added by collection centers, rather than individual farmers or formula companies.
The scandal reminds the worldwide public of safety problems caused by poor regulation in China-sourced food and drugs, even though China-produced formula is not exported. The milk powder that caused the problem came from the Sanlu Group, one of the largest producers of dairy producers in China. Sanlu recalled its milk powder last week. However, there have been complaints of problems for almost six months. The first child died on May 1 and the second on July 22. The long time lag has caused complaining in some quarters that the company has been dragging its feet before taking this drastic action. The action is certainly drastic: the MOH says that over 10,000 tons of milk powder have been recalled.
Melamine was also the culprit in the China dog food scandal that occurred last year. "
Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com/
"A second child in China has died after being given tainted infant formula, and more than a thousand other children became sick from various forms of the product. China’s Ministry of Health has determined the problem lies in the chemical additive melamine. The chemical is never supposed to be used in infant formula, but its addition increases the reading levels of protein in milk, though not the actual amount of protein. The MOH theorizes that the chemical was added by collection centers, rather than individual farmers or formula companies.
The scandal reminds the worldwide public of safety problems caused by poor regulation in China-sourced food and drugs, even though China-produced formula is not exported. The milk powder that caused the problem came from the Sanlu Group, one of the largest producers of dairy producers in China. Sanlu recalled its milk powder last week. However, there have been complaints of problems for almost six months. The first child died on May 1 and the second on July 22. The long time lag has caused complaining in some quarters that the company has been dragging its feet before taking this drastic action. The action is certainly drastic: the MOH says that over 10,000 tons of milk powder have been recalled.
Melamine was also the culprit in the China dog food scandal that occurred last year. "
Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com/
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
SPX 500 ready for a downturn?? Yikes, I was right....
On August 21st I posted the following thoughts re: the SPX 500 and its future direction....
"Guys, the market is rolling over, sentiment is getting very negative...... Today is NOTHING. SPX is 1268 and the July lows were 1200....... "
Here is a chart today of the SPX 500 ...take a look at the decline since then! WOW.....This unwinding of risk & liquidity crunch has been staggering....
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$spx
Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com
"Guys, the market is rolling over, sentiment is getting very negative...... Today is NOTHING. SPX is 1268 and the July lows were 1200....... "
Here is a chart today of the SPX 500 ...take a look at the decline since then! WOW.....This unwinding of risk & liquidity crunch has been staggering....
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$spx
Dan Ross
http://www.BetterBizIdeas.com
ABAT & Stock Price movement
From a post I made on a stock message board a few days back...
"The stock is CLEARLY going to $3. I agree with those levels and stated that, if $3.65-$3.75 was broken that $3.00 was the likely next point "
Well, 3 days have past now and ABAT is quickly approaching $3.00. At $3.00 I'll be buying some ABAT shares for sure.
Dan Ross
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