Solar Stocks headed North? Great link....

http://seekingalpha.com/article/128304-want-solar-panels-china-will-pick-up-the-tab?source=email

Great Article on China subsidizing the installation/financing of solar panels. I am going to keep abreast on this story as all the details aren't spelled out. Given the credit crunch going on right now in the world, this is a VERY important announcement and, frankly, a gamechanger for some companies.

China is the #1 manufacturer of solar panels so they do have a HUGE vested interest. Chinese banks also funded quite a bit of the industries growth over the last few years and, from what I have read, some companies aren't generating free cash flow at this time (ie. they are dead if volumes start to decline as their debtloads will kill them). Troubled companies would be stuck with too much capacity, already thin margins due to industry overcapacity and their banks would get negatively impacted in the future.

This is also a way to help keep their exports up while enabling U.S. companies to effectively gain access to credit (because the payback period would be quicker) and save $$$ themselves. This has an impact on our trade deficit with China, an important thing to keep in mind when we hear politicians and their TV ramblings :)

Basically the payback period on solar installations is going to be 1.5 to 2 years now at current electric prices if the math he did is correct.

Keep this in the back of your mind as solar stock prices, from what the article says, appear to be heading north. Due your DD on this one...

Dan

Unemployment + More job losses in 2009

Great article re: the state of the economy and job losses.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/06/news/economy/jobs_february/index.htm


Despite a rising stock market this week (+10% - a suckers rally, in my opinion), the below pictures, from the article above, really highlight how quickly the economy has deteriorated. I am now convinced that 10% unemployment is in the cards here in 2009.

Dan Ross

http://www.DanRoss.info

Pending Pain for the Economy and Stock Market?

Boy, this kind of reporting gets old (negative news AGAIN) but I do NOT find it being reported enough by the general business media (CNBC, Fox Business News). The people they bring on, in general, have views/opinions are TOO optimistic and keep luring people into leaving their $$$ in the stock market right now.

1) Apparently there is a TON more pain that is going to hit European banks here soon as Eastern Europe pains negatively impacts their banks. Most North American/Japanese banks aren't big players in these countries.


2) John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors, thinks the markets will hit a new low this summer, and then potentially flip/flop a bunch for years to follow. I agree with his thoughts re: "another leg down" as I think the markets should be trading around 665-680 based on multiples to forecasted S&P500 EPS and historical pricing behavior during bear markets. If this happens, can you imagine the impact to 401k plans, pension funds (that will be SUBSTANTIALLY underfunded), etc.

Hope everyone finds this info. valuable.

Dan Ross
http://www.DanRoss.info

Retail to the Rescue?

Retail to the rescue?

I wouldn't believe this opinion for a split second. Markets don't go straight down. They go down down further than they rebound. They go down more than up due to information being slow to come out. Markets don't go straight down because people see signs of a positive rebound and get greedy.

Well, I am playing the trend and this trend is down.

The economy has weakened, consumers and businesses aren't spending (remember, they are trying to PAY BACK their debts from previous years) and besides, the free credit of yesteryears is no longer available. I think 4-5% in some guaranteed investment works for me. Heck, I think the best investment is people investing in themselves to develop some new skills that enable them to add value in their organization or on their own. That way, if anything happens, people have something to fall back on or perhaps a new career path.



Dan Ross

Tony Robbins @ TED conference

Classic from Tony Robbins. More cool clips like this at http://www.TED.com

Enjoy!



Dan Ross

Coming Retail Iceburg (More Commercial Real Estate Problems)

I've been mentioning this for quite awhile folks......Everyone reading the blog and looking at my "commercial real estate" tags can view prior comments.

Basically retail consultant Howard Davidowitz,of Davidowitz & Associates, is saying that as Americans save and spend less, due to the financial crisis, it's clear there's too much retail space. Just visit Web site deadmalls.com and track retail's growing body count. Most concerning to Davidowitz are Luxury Retailers and "private equity retailers" (formerly publicly traded and then taken private via use of debt by private equity companies).

Among the brandname stores Davidowitz says are in trouble:

Nordstrom
Neiman Marcus
Tiffany
Jeweler Zale Corp.
Saks
J.C. Penney
Sears


Until I can get some revised blogs up I thought I would keep people abreast of my thoughts so I'll keep the content coming here! I see it taking about a month for things to get done.

I hope everyone enjoys the video below. Boy, this guy is PESSIMISTIC!



Dan Ross

Jim Cramer on Nationalizing Companies - His Take

I like his take. I think he puts things into proper perspective...



Dan Ross