Sunday, December 7, 2008

Severe Market Recession in 2009?

Folks, this guy has been right EVERY step of the way. He screamed "WOLF" 2 years ago and has been right all the way down.

I agree with Roubini re: too much global supply. Demand will fall, which should cause deflationary risks. That is how oil goes from $140 to $44 in 6 months :) Having said that, I think, at some point, that certain commodities will become INFLATIONARY again as supplies get cut off and the U.S. dollar falls. Oil is the most likely to experience a notable REBOUND. It might take until 2010 or 2011 for oil prices to increase at hockey stick prices again (back to $100 +) because all of the oil producing countries need the revenue to finance projects through 2010 at a minimum. Most countries won't cut their spending quick enough so they will need to continue pumping oil at low prices to finance their spending deficits.

Given Middle East deficits, who buys U.S. assets? The asian economies is the answer....which is why I think U.S. stock prices continue to languish for awhile.

"Worst recession in 50 years" per the video below.

Dan Ross

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