Sunday, October 12, 2008

History of Market Crashes / Recoveries

The attached video has some great charts showing historic stock market crashes and how long it took the market to recover back to previous levels.

This isn't like other crashes because unemployment/weak business DID NOT lead us into this recession. It will only occur AFTER the financial crisis, exaggerating the problem. Prior to the most recent downturn everything I had been reading/seeing indicated that the foreclosure problem would peak in May of 2009 and that unemployment would peak somewhere between 7% and 7.5%. In 2001/2002 unemployment peaked at 5.5%-6%.

My guess is that all of these previous estimates will be revised UPWARDS and that the economic rebound will take longer than people are projecting.

Dan Ross

No comments: