Sunday, November 9, 2008

China's $586 billion stimulus package announced today

Today China announced a $586 billion spending package to boost domestic demand while vowing to carry out "moderately easy monetary policies." China's Cabinet has approved a plan to invest $586 billion on infrastructure and social welfare by the end of 2010. They also say they will adopt an "active" fiscal policy and will offer tax help of 120 billion yuan to enterprises.

Key Questions/Points:
1) This dwarfs the $150 billion amount the U.S. spent in February to stimulate the economy.

2) Where will the Chinese get the $$$$? That question alone will cause a ripple effect as people will anticipate that they will be buying fewer U.S. treasury bonds and take more of their currency reserves back home with them to spend on their local economy. This might hurt U.S. stocks/bonds further and cause the U.S. stock market to pull back.

3) This should boost Chinese-based companies that do the bulk of their business in China and sell primarily into their economy/market. Remember 50% of their economy is export related.

Dan Ross

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