Sunday, November 2, 2008

S&P 500 - daily trends (downtrend still in FULL effect) - Graph Below

I wanted to post this last week......but couldn't get the GIF files to post correctly.

Today's left chart is interesting as the charts are now turning bullish. The MACD has crossed (below), W%R isn't overbought at -20 and the RSI has quite a bit of room to move. Short-term it looks like the market is going to rally for a bit. We could get a short-term run and then, as we approach the 10 WEEK moving average, you would expect some SERIOUS resistance and the potential for the market to roll back over. That will take time to happen though.....

The chart on the right shows weekly trends. You can see from that chart that we have BARELY moved above the 5 week moving average and we are now moving out of significantly oversold territory. Nonetheless, 1100 on the S&P is a 13% move to the upside. You can also see how we DROPPED off a cliff from 1100 as well. The previous intra-week high of around 1050 was important. Any close above that would likely spur a run to 1100. That might be where the charts meet at the 20 week moving average. I can't see a run to 1200 anytime soon based on the fundamentals but 1050 seems highly plausible and 1100 seems like a reach (a + 13% move on top of our current move up) but it is possible.

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